
In case you missed it, Russia got a new president today in Dmitri Anatolyevich Medvedev (pron. 'MedvEdyev'), the forty-two-year-old (!) lawyer and Putin protege. Everybody here is wondering how Medvedev and soon-to-be Prime Minister Putin will share power, and what, if any policy changes may be in store.
The cards are heavily stacked in favor of the status quo and Medvedev himself has pledged to charge ahead with 'Plan Putin', as United Russia's platform is called. Even so, there are signs that the new president will be friendlier to civil rights and freedoms than his predecessor, at least that's how I interpreted the part in his inauguration speech when he said, "Human rights and freedoms... are deemed of the highest value for our society." There's also something to be said for his correctly identifying and pledging to fight Russia's biggest problems: corruption, red-tape, poor infrastructure, and illiberal economic policies. I'm not sure any US presidential candidate has been as honest (a pitfall of popular elections, I guess).
Medvedev is easier on the anti-Western rhetoric than Putin, which might translate into less saber rattling and more actual diplomacy (which will be necessary if Russia expects to join the WTO in the near future). Ironically, if relations were to normalize under Medvedev, it might be that years of saber rattling and oil realpolitik have finally convinced the EU and US to take Russia seriously.
The two things that could tank US-Russia relations in the near future are a war with Georgia (very possible) and the election of President John McCain, who's pledged to punish Russia's democratic lapses by ejecting it from the G8. Democracy promotion aside, this strikes me as a truly terrible idea. I'd almost prefer the Clinton/Obama approach: as of February 26th neither of them knew Medvedev's name.
I bookmarked a BBC story on Medvedev's inauguration. I highly recommend the video. Five dollars to anybody who can tell me why the soldiers are dressed in Napoleonic garb, or why the guy who shakes Putin's hand is wearing a mortarboard. Also, what's with the zany cinematography? Rather than lending him a regal air, the grandiose dolly and point-of-view shots a la 'Russian Ark' make Medvedev look even dorkier than he already is.